If Russia Wins: A Scenario by Carlo Masala, professor of international politics at Bundeswehr University Munich was a bestseller in Germany in 2025. In the short book Professor Masala war games a situation where Russia has been victorious in Ukraine and the moves that they make next. He suggests that Russia would attempt to destabilise NATO.
In the book Russia invades Estonia, capturing the small town of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea. The Russian speaking minority is used as a casus belli. Narva, with a population of 52,000, is where the border crossing between Estonia and Russia is located. Russia invading the area would simply be crossing a bridge between the two countries. Hiiumaa has a population of less than 10,000.
The invasion of Narva and Hiiumaa was not about annexing either territory for Russia. Instead it was intended to show how weak and self-interested NATO would be. These areas in Estonia are tiny and would not provoke a response from other NATO members. In the book that is how it plays out and NATO is no longer a functioning organisation.
By demanding Greenland in such an aggressive manner Donald Trump has accomplished something similar to that theorised by professor Masala, the only difference is the response of the other NATO members.
The EU has been accommodating to Donald Trump’s demands up to this point. The worry has been that the USA would rescind military aid to Ukraine and EU leaders have gone out of their way to prevent this. They have endured a humiliating trade agreement; JD Vance accusing Europe of backsliding in democracy; and a national security strategy that declares support for European far right parties.
Annexing a territory of an EU Member State was a step too far, however. Instead of shying away from confrontation, the rest of Europe stood behind Denmark. The EU made the decision that they were willing to defend one of their one against a much larger adversary. Greenland is not a source of huge natural resources, but the principal of territorial rights and sovereignty matters.
Donald Trump does not like conflict despite his many threats towards it. He will only use the military option when he perceives the other party will not be able to fight back. His kidnap of Nicolás Maduro was the perfect operation in his view because it involved a limited military operation with no permanent boots on the ground and Venezuelans would not put up much defence of Maduro. He ordered air strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites during the summer of 2025, but only after Israel had obliterated their air defences.
In Trump’s mind everyone is classed as either strong or weak. Strong characters are those like Putin, Xi Jinping, Viktor Orban. Leaders to who laws don’t apply and rule their countries as they see fit. In the weak category are liberal democracies, whose leaders have to follow the rule of law. Like any schoolyard bully he preys on the weak, but once those stand up to him he will back away.
NATO has held together in the face of Trump’s aggression, but the result is the same as that envisioned in professor Masala’s book. NATO may survive as an organisation, but it is much weakened. The remaining members cannot rely on the USA as an ally any longer. The USA has not officially withdrawn, but the remaining countries should not expect the USA to respond if Art. 5 is ever invoked again.
Mark Carney, prime minister of Canada and former governor of the Bank of England, addressed this directly in his talk at Davos. He said:
American hegemony, in particular, helped provide public goods, open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security and support for frameworks for resolving disputes…This bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.
The American led post-war world order has now cracked and it cannot be repaired. The greatest asset that the USA had was trust and that has now been squandered by Donald Trump. Countries around the world put their trust in the integrity of the USA because they had the reputation for being an honest actor.
Canada was the first American ally to realise that the world has changed. Trump began his second term as president by repeatedly talking about how Canada should become part of the USA, whether Canadians want to or not. This week the European’s had their awakening to the new world.
American military alliances have begun to disintegrate. The American financial system could be next. The weaponisation of the dollar has been noticed around the world. The value of gold began its ascent when the USA placed unprecedented sanctions on Russia’s use of the financial system in 2022.
But more recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited. You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration, when integration becomes the source of your subordination. – Mark Carney
Pensions funds in Denmark and Sweden have announced that they will sell their holdings in USA Treasuries, thereby declaring that they do not see American debt as a good investment. Deutsche Bank also wrote a note to clients advising that this could be an EU wide response to American aggression. This caught the eye of Scott Bessent, who commented on it during his talk at Davos.
It is another chip away at the strength of the American financial system, which is already under strain from Trump’s attacks on the Fed and Jay Powell.
The rest of the world was watching for the European response to Trump’s demands over Greenland. If they had acquiesced then it would have signalled Europe’s weakness in a new might makes right world. Great Powers would have delighted in their reacquired ability to take what they think should be theirs. If the EU had capitulated and allowed Trump to take Danish territory the Russia surely would have been eyeing up other European countries and the whole continent could have come into play.
Washing My Brain 